Is this America’s Brexit moment?

The current electoral landscape is unlike any other I’ve experienced during my adulthood. Partisanship, fear and hysteria seem to dominate our headlines, regardless of economic statistics, stock prices or the investments our Government has made and is making to help our country be safer and more competitive. This is not to say there aren’t very real problems, but the media’s click-driven depiction of reality seems to be at odds with how most of us are living our day to day lives. And many of the issues of the day seem to have further polarized our already anxiety-ridden psyche — immigration, a women’s right to choose, the role of government in our society, economic inequality, Israel and more. The anger and frustration is palpable. And politicians are ratcheting up the vitriol on both the left and the right, further stoking the fires of stress and uncertainty. In short, it’s a mess, and it’s not the way a healthy society handles differences of opinion. It seems that we’ve moved beyond the issues into a binary world, where it’s party over country and where one’s affiliation is all one needs to know in order to infer an entire set of values, preferences and beliefs. Nuance, texture and respect seems out of reach.

But even as we careen towards Election Night 2024, there are existential issues at play that voters (and yes, potential couch-sitters, this means you, too) must pay attention to and express their well-considered views. This is not the time to use one’s vote to simply make a point, or to sit out the election entirely because you’re angry about a particular issue or just burned out by the drama and relentless pounding on our attention and spiritual well-being. Use your vote wisely and with thought and consideration, or you might find yourself with a morning hangover and a persistent headache where there are no take-backs.

The scenario I’m describing happened a mere eight years ago and we have data on how it played out: UK Brexit 2016. It doesn’t matter what your perspective, whether it’s voter polling or the actual economic impact felt by the UK since the Referendum, it has been an unmitigated disaster. Polls show an astounding level of regret among the electorate, and the economic ramifications have been similarly tragic. Further, it’s unreal how the issues that fomented the Leave movement line up with Trump’s MAGA movement.

Failure of other countries in the region sparking a sharp rise in immigration (in the UK’s case, a direct result of Arab Spring)

Sovereignty and economic nationalism

A sense that EU Membership didn’t fulfill its promise (with some subset of the population feeling left behind, similar to those who have felt the brunt of globalization)

The Recession of 2008 (covid, anyone?)

These are all valid concerns, and are reasonable issues for voters to consider. But was the right answer a fundamental breaking of the social and economic contract with their geographic and economic partners that had been largely working for more than two decades? Or was this an emotional response to issues stirred up by politicians to create a we/they schism in society that could be parlayed into electoral victories? The rapid shift in polling would seem to indicate that people’s motivations for voting Leave were not purely rational, but perhaps for affiliating with a nationalistic wave that promised false benefits which became clear as the actual separation was being negotiated per Article 50. Today’s London is not the same financial powerhouse of the Big Bang era. We’ll see what the future holds, but the likelihood of the UK re-entering the EU is very low given the complexities and the time it took to effect the de-coupling or, alternatively, getting back to its pre-Brexit levels of growth.

Consider these recent comments by the Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan:

London’s economy alone has shrunk by more than £30 billion, Mayor reveals at prestigious Mansion House dinner

Independent report by Cambridge Econometrics, commissioned by City Hall, shows London has 290,000 fewer jobs than if Brexit had not taken place, with half the total two million job losses nationwide coming in the financial services and construction sectors

Mayor of London identifies Brexit as ‘key contributor’ to the current cost-of-living crisis — highlighting evidence that it is fuelling food price increases

Sadiq calls on the Government to build a closer relationship with the EU

The Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, will use a speech at Mansion House in the City of London tonight to reveal that the cost of Brexit to the UK’s economy is £140billion, according to new independent analysis.

The new report, by Cambridge Econometrics commissioned by City Hall (1), also shows that London’s economy has shrunk by more than £30 billion.

The average Briton was nearly £2,000 worse off in 2023, while the average Londoner was nearly £3,400 worse off last year as a result of Brexit, the report reveals.* It also calculates that there are nearly two million fewer jobs overall in the UK due to Brexit — with almost 300,000 fewer jobs in the capital alone.

So with this backdrop, how do you feel about a US Presidential candidate and a team who has made the following policies their priority upon a return to office?:

Pursue policies invoking economic nationalism: tariffs and trade wars

Practice military isolationism: let countries “do whatever the hell they want to do” even if those being attacked are our allies

Push abortion policies to the States now that Roe v. Wade has been overturned by the Supreme Court while continuing to appoint pro-life justices to the bench

Roll back climate-aware energy policies including pulling out of the Paris Accords

Employ mass deportations of immigrants, and end automatic citizenship for children born to immigrant parents

Allow parents to vote out school principals

Implement a civil service exam to test loyalty

Empower US attorneys to root out political opponents

So, if you believe this best represents your views of what’s best for our country, ok. Now, I think it’s important to note that economic and military history would indicate that the first two policies are always disastrous. Tariffs and trade wars raise prices and are inherently inflationary. What the Biden Administration has done is to onshore trillions of dollars of manufacturing through grants, incentives and investments. If you want to Buy American you have to Build American, and that’s exactly what the JOBS Act and Investment Recovery Act have done. You don’t get that by cutting off your supply chains and losing access to critical materials — not to mention talent — by damaging relationships with trading partners. That’s basic economics. I’m not talking about unfettered globalism — painful lessons have been learned. The way we rebuild a robust Middle Class is to create good jobs stateside in growing industries, make investments in affordable housing (and simply net new housing, to be honest), provide low cost access to early child care so people can work and invest in their families and their communities and offer access to excellent education. To those who argue otherwise — follow the money and the motivation.

The balance of the policy points really get to the kind of society you want for yourself, your children and your fellow citizens. Do you think the gains that women have made in the past 50 years should be maintained and expanded upon or rolled back? Do you believe women should have control of their bodies or not? Do you want your Government to surveil you or your loved ones if they believe you’re not in support of their regime? Do you believe in data and science that indicates that climate change is an existential risk to our planet — and our lives — or that the stuff you’re seeing out your window and reading in the news isn’t really happening? I mean sure, I guess there are some people who probably would answer “yes” to some or all of these questions, but I have to believe the number is far less than those who would identify themselves as “Republican”. And what about all those young people who are angry at Israel and Biden’s policy of unwavering support? You know, those who are marching on those nice green campuses and spouting hatred and animus towards our Government, our University administrators and threatening to vote “Uncommitted” or not voting at all? Do you think you’ll be served well by standing on the sidelines? Are you really the people who will benefit from a Trump Administration and the above policies? Ummmm…no. Your choice, people.

This is what I mean by our Brexit momement. We are at a point in history with lots of emotions, lots of confusing feelings and a single date on which we can express our view of the kind of future we want. UK citizens had their chance to make a statement and they did. And they regret it. In this election what is your statement going to be — expressing your feeling on a single issue when the question is about the future of our country, or thinking critically, reflecting on the complexity of your feelings and doing the thing that is best for our collective futures? Whatever you decide, just make sure you are going in eyes wide open and have no regrets. You get only one shot.