Major League Baseball: a sacred trust
Quite simply, the decision as to whether or not there will be Major League Baseball in 2020 turns on the following facts:
Fact 1: Games paid (for) is a function of games played. This means prorated salaries. Players have contracts and are creditors. Owners own teams and enjoy the risks and rewards of the equity. The obligation is clear: the owners owe prorated salaries to the players.
Fact 2: Owners care less about regular season games than the playoffs for monetary reasons. This is why they’re happy offering proration on a 50 game season because of the value of playoffs, especially if they’re extended. By offering straight proration for 50 games isn’t a “give” on the owners part — it’s merely a way to save 32 games worth of money (by playing without fans and the associated revenues) and juicing their per game yield once the playoffs are taken into account.
Fact 3: A 50 game MLB product isn’t going to be what the public or the players want. Consider 5 weeks of training camp into a 50 game season and then into the playoffs. Sorry, but even major leaguers need time to get into their groove. 50 games is asking way too much of players to be at their best and to set the stage for subsequent contract negotiations or arbitration.
Fact 4: The value to players of playing is a U-shaped function. Playing introduces risk of injury, especially with a shortened training camp and a shortened season. Unless the number of games for which players get paid reaches an indifference point (it seems like 82 games plus playoffs might just be that point), players may feel that a substantially shorter season simply isn’t worth the risk.
Fact 5: I shouldn’t need to have stated Facts 1–4 because what they contain is self-evident, fair and common sense. The owners may not want the public to believe that, but for a rational actor who understands business and negotiations what has transpired between the MLB and the MLBPA is insane and never should have gotten to this point.
In summary, the owners owe the players money to play the game. Due to circumstances beyond anyone’s control the season can’t be 162 games and can’t be played in front of fans. These are the risks of an equity owner and that is crystal clear. The players want to play but to play safely, to put a great product on the field and to have the rewards of playing exceed the risks of doing so. Players are managing their careers, of which they have only one. Owners have diversification: of players, of revenue streams, of other personal assets. For 2020 to make sense for players means a half season of baseball plus the playoffs. But the owners don’t want to pay this, money that is rightly owed to support their most important assets as well as the integrity of the game. Why? Because they don’t want to pay if they don’t have to (integrity be damned), and all that’s happened in recent years is the owners running over the players. Why should they get “soft” now?
Imagine a world where the players were united as one in advocating for what is fair and just. Imagine a world where owners felt a deep sense of civic responsibility rather than just focusing on maximizing short term returns for their investors. Imagine a world where owners were transparent about their finances so crises like these could be managed in a spirit of partnership rather than as a win-lose zero-sum game, and people up and down baseball could be paid fairly and treated with dignity. Imagine a world where the risks — and opportunities — associated with changing preferences, demographics and economic inequality could be managed as an owner-player partnership. Just imagine.
Here’s the bottom line — enough messing around. We should have an 82 game season plus playoffs. The players are owed prorated pay. The owners should either take bank loans to deal with short term cash flow issues or pay the players to help finance a portion of the obligations. And an environment of expanded trust, transparency and partnership should reign as we head into the 2021 CBA negotiations. Because I fear if we don’t, there may not be baseball in 2020 or 2021 as an educated cohort of players begin to push back against an opaque and unfair regime. The owners are waiting for the players to blink — but what if they don’t? Baseball should not be zero sum — it doesn’t need to be zero sum — it’s only that the owners have chosen to make it so. Change the frame.
